Pages

Saturday, 12 May 2012

99.88628643517% of infants are not saved by vaccines!


99.88628643517% of infants are not saved by vaccines!

The vaccination program the CDC has created does, in fact, save thousands of lives each year. But the chance that it will save your baby's life is infintesimally small.

Let's do some math!

Bear with me here...

The CDC vaccinates our children against 14 diseases before 15 months of age. We're all told that this is vitally important, and the math looks good when you look at the populace of the US as a whole. But let's look at each individual disease.

There is a lot of math below. Here's the breakdown: I'm going to give you the name of a disease, it's prevalence before the vaccine was introduced, it's prevalence today, and it's lethality. The percentage chance of the vaccine saving your infant's life lies somewhere between the product of the lethality and the pre-vaccine prevalence, and the product of the lethality and the post-vaccine prevalence. This is because, while being unvaccinated, your child is more vulnerable than a vaccinated child (more than the post-vaccine prevalence), the fact that the vaccine has removed a signifcant number of sources of the disease makes the disease much hard to catch (less than the pre-vaccine prevalence). There is good reason to believe that the smaller number is the more accurate result, but it's debatable, so I'm showing the entire range. For simplicity's sake, I'm rounding up to .01% in cases where a number would be smaller than that (many lethality ratings).

Haemophilius Influenzae type B (HIB)
Before the vaccine was introduced: 60 cases per 100,000 (.06% of the population caught this disease)
After the vaccine took effect: 1 case per 100,000 (.001% caught it).
Lethality: 6% of people who caught this disease died of it.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to HIB is 0006%-.0036%

Pneumococcus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 33 cases per 100,000 (.033%)
After the vaccine took effect: 13 per 100,000 (.013%)
Lethality: 14% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Pneumococcus is .00182%-.00462%

Meningococcus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 12 cases per 100,000 (.012%)
After the vaccine took effect: 5 cases per 100,000 (.005%)
Lethality: 14% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Meningococcus is .0007%-.00168%

Hepatitus B
Before the vaccine was introduced: 115 cases per 100,000 (.115%)
After the vaccine took effect: 20 per 100,000 (.02%)
Lethality: 25% fatal.

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Hepatitus B is .005%-.02875%
It's worth pointing out that: This is an STD, transmitted exactly like AIDS. If you believe you can teach your child not to catch AIDS, this disease is already out of the picture.

Rotavirus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 13,000 cases in 100,000 (13%)
After the vaccine took effect: unknown -- the vaccine is too new to have statistically significant "after" numbers.
Lethality: .01% lethal.

That means: Not determinable due to the recent addtion of this vaccine.
It's worth pointing out that: Rotavirus is diarrhea, and nothing more. Its most extreme form is treatable with "hydration therapy" -- which is nothing more than giving your infant some sugary or salty water to rehydrate him or her.

Diphtheria
Before the vaccine was introduced: 200 per 100,000 (.2%)
After the vaccine took effect: .001 per 100,000 (.000001%)
Lethality: 10%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Diphtheria is .0000001%-.02%

Tetanus
Before the vaccine was introduced: 3.9 per 100,000 (.0039%)
After the vaccine took effect: .15 per 100,000 (.00015%)
Lethality: 20%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Tetanus is .00003%-.00078%

Pertussis
Before the vaccine was introduced: 100 per 100,000 (.1%)
After the vaccine took effect: 3.01 per 100,000 (.00301%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Pertussis is .0000301%-.001%

Poliio
Before the vaccine was introduced: 37 per 100,000 (.00037%)
After the vaccine took effect: .01 per 100,000 (.0001%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Polio (x) is .00001%-.000037%

Influenza
Before the vaccine was introduced: 16,000 per 100,000 (16%)
After the vaccine took effect: unknown -- the vaccine is too new to have statistically significant "after" numbers.
Lethality: .01%

That means: Not determinable due to the recent addtion of this vaccine.
It's worth pointing out that: Influenza is the flu, nothing more. The flu virus mutates so quickly that the pharmaceutical companies' ability to produce vaccine will never be able to 'catch up' and get the flu under control. Unlike every other vaccine, which was produced to bring a potentially lethal disease down to easily managable levels, the flu vaccine is literally a joke. It's a vaccine against last year's flu virus, which by it's nature has already mutated, rendering the vaccine almost useless.

Measles
Before the vaccine was introduced: 270 per 100,000 (.27%)
After the vaccine took effect: .15 per 100,000 (.00015%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Measles is .000015%-.027%

Mumps
Before the vaccine was introduced: 75 per 100,000 (.075%)
After the vaccine took effect: .09 per 100,000 (.00009%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Mumps is .000009%-.0075%
It's worth pointing out that: In 2006, an "epidemic" of mumps broke out in the midwest. 84% of the people who caught mumps during that "epidemic" were vaccinated.

Rubella
Before the vaccine was introduced: 58 per 100,000 (.058%)
After the vaccine took effect: .5 per 100,000 (.0005%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Rubella is .00005%-.0058%

Varicella (aka Chicken Pox)
Before the vaccine was introduced: 1,300 per 100,000 (1.3%)
After the vaccine took effect: 100 per 100,000 (.1%)
Lethality: .01%

That means: Your child's unvaccinated chance of dying to Varicella is .001%-.013%

All right, so, we now have a range of lethality for every disease we vaccinate against. Here comes the fun part. I'm going to calculate, using the UPPER END (before any vaccinations began!) numbers, what the total percentage chance of your child dying from the total of all of these diseases is. For those of you not familiar with how statistics work, a very brief explanation: I'm going to multiply the chance of your child living despite the disease attempting to kill it (for example, with Varicella above, your child has, at the minimum, a 99.99999987% chance of living despite the disease's existence) by the chance of dying from each other disease in this list. Obviously, each multiplication is going to reduce the total percentage chance of survival a little bit -- let's see how far down it goes. Of course, I have to leave out Rotavirus and Influenza, but neither of them are meaningfully lethal in the First World regardless.

100%-.0036% = 99.9964% to avoid death by HIB
100%-.00462% = 99.99538% to avoid death by Pneumococcus
100%-.00168% = 99.99832% to avoid death by Meningococcus
100%-.02875% = 99.97125% to avoid death by Hepatitus B
(no data for Rotavirus)
100%-.02% = 99.98% to avoid death by Diphtheria
100%-.00078% = 99.99922% to avoid death by Tetanus
100%-.001% = 99.999% to avoid death by Pertussis
100%-.000037% = 99.999963% to avoid death by Polio
(no data for Influenza)
100%-.027% = 99.973% to avoid death by Measles
100%-.0075% = 99.9925% to avoid death by Mumps
100%-.0058% = 99.9942% to avoid death by Rubella
100%-.013% = 99.987% to avoid death by Varicella

And, the big number after all this, the grand product of all of these narrowly-avoided deaths is: 99.88628643517%

Which means that, with no vaccinations at all, your infant has a 0.11371356483% chance of dying to one of these horrible diseases. (Remember, this is using all of the upper-end numbers. The actual number is statistically significantly lower!)

Kind of makes you feel like the CDC is playing your fears like a fiddle, doesn' t it?

So, ask yourself: assuming you fear a diagnosis of "autistic" only 1% as much as you fear your child's early death...do you feel like there is at least an eleven percent chance that the autism-from-vaccines theory is correct? If you do, the math seems strongly to indicate that vaccinating your child is not in your best interest.

==================================================================
MOKSH: (Monitoring Knowledge & Social Health)
An International Network of Eminent Scientists Questioning 
                                  the Science Behind "Science"
1st Floor, N-3/409, IRC Village,
Nayapalli, Bhubaneswar - 15
Odisha, India
Phone: +91-9337102146
Disclaimer: Views expressed in my mails are my own and may not represent that of the organisation.
===========================