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Friday 25 January 2013

Can the European Union collapse?
Can the European Union collapse?
23.01.2013 The stable political situation in Europe is not that stable after all. Recently, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that the government of the United Kingdom would consider pulling out of the EU. Cameron said that the UK would not be able to remain in the EU unless Brussels makes some concessions to London.

The stable political situation in Europe is not that stable. Britain mentioned a possibility of secession from the European Union. The prime minister of the United Kingdom David Cameron said that if Brussels does not revise the formula of Britain's participation in the EU, the UK government would raise the issue of withdrawal from the Union. This was an excerpt from the speech of the prime minister of Great Britain he was to deliver in the Netherlands. According to him, the prepared speech is of great importance for the country's foreign policy. However, it did not take place because of the hostage crisis in Algeria. The prime minister was not able to leave London as he had to address pressing political issues.

The possibility of the collapse of the European Union is being discussed for over a year. Back in 2012, George Soros, an American financier, said he did not rule out the possibility of the collapse of the EU. According to him, the current situation in Europe is very unstable. If the European currency loses its weight in the world, this would inevitably lead to the collapse of the European Union. In turn, this would lead to the collapse of not only European countries but also many world powers.

According to George Soros, the current economic situation with the Eurozone is even more serious than the financial crisis of 2008. However, Soros believes that the EU authorities are the only ones to blame in numerous economic problems. For example, last year, he criticized the actions of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accusing her of exacerbating the economic issues of Europe. Not all analysts agree with Soros. Last year, a political science professor from Germany Winfried Böttcher in an interview said that he did not believe that complete disintegration of the European Union was possible.

He thinks that individual members may leave the EU, such as Great Britain, however, the major powers will stay. The analyst believes that If the Eurozone disintegration is understood as the return to the old national legal forms, then it is impossible, because all European countries are unlikely to want to halt their development. However, he does not deny internal problems in the Eurozone. According to him, in 2013, EU governments should not rush to accept new members.

The reason is the destabilized economic situation in Europe, and Brussels should be more cautious when approving new members. However, in the middle of this year, Croatia is expected to enter the EU, but, according to the professor, only because the application for the European Integration was sent by Croatia to the Government of the EU in the 1990s. He believes that had the government of Croatia applied a year or two ago, the EU would not even consider the application.

According to the president of the EU Herman Van Rompuy, the EU is currently experiencing difficult times. The Eurozone economy is unstable, and the internal split, sought by British Prime Minister David Cameron, may lead to the complete disintegration of the EU on certain geopolitical unification. According to him, the aggressive policy of Cameron, who is trying to take over the powers in Brussels, would lead to the inevitable collapse of the EU, and would cause irreparable damage to the European market. Internal political disintegration of the EU is currently one of the main problems of the Eurozone, said George Friedman, founder and CEO of STRATFOR, a company dealing with social security issues.

In one of his statements he said that the main task of the EU governments was prevention of a split and release of the internal political tension. The EU President agreed with these conclusions. He believes that the behavior of the UK is unacceptable. None of the EU member states should attempt to undermine the unity and authority of the Union in the eyes of the world. The President noted that if each country considered only its own domestic interests, regardless of other participating countries, the EU would cease to exist. As for the possible withdrawal of the UK from the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy said that the UK would lose much more than Prime Minister David Cameron would think.

Cameron said that the economic crisis has been the main problem to date. European states are not as competitive as they used to be. In addition, the Prime Minister said that general public was quite skeptical of the idea of ​​a federal Europe. If, according to Cameron, the EU government does not pay attention to the pressing problems of the Eurozone, the United Kingdom would consider withdrawal from the EU. As noted by the media, David Cameron stressed that Britain should play an important role in the modern world, however, he added that it was currently impossible because of the internal contradictions in the EU.

As noted by News Agency Daily Telegraph, the United Kingdom Government raised the question of holding a referendum on the UK's withdrawal from the EU. As stated in the draft, if the referendum is confirmed, the agenda will include three questions - whether the UK should remain in the EU, whether it should withdraw from the EU, or whether it should reconsider the relations with other members of the Union, focusing only on trade and economic issues.

However, the referendum proposal was rejected. Instead, a new law is being considered that would give prime minister David Cameron the authority to reconsider the relations between Great Britain and the EU. The law will be adopted following the parliamentary elections of 2015. The new draft regulates the referendum in which British citizens would be able to choose the course of the country.

According to Cameron, it would satisfy the requirements of the EU Government and would not violate the right of British citizens to choose the fate of their country. However, David Cameron said that withdrawal from the EU would be the last resort. He thinks it would be best if the UK is be able to stay in the European Union.

However, as reported by Daily Telegraph, the United Kingdom Government is not pleased with the decision of the EU Government to create a single economic policy. The British authorities are unwilling to transfer their main powers to the central government of the Eurozone. Britain does not agree with the decision of the heads of the European Union to increase the budget. As Cameron noted, in the worst case, the size of the EU budget should remain the same, but it would be better to reduce it by several percent. The EU authorities proposed to increase the annual budget of the Union to 1 trillion euros.

France and Germany proposed to leave the budget at the same level, and Britain offered to reduce its size. 51 percent of the UK citizens voted against staying with the EU.

In the referendum on accession of the United Kingdom to the EU, 68 percent of citizens voted for the accession. Analysts believe it is too early to talk about Britain's withdrawal from the EU. However, a certain division in the once stable Europe is obvious. In the end, Europe will not be the same, and without serious reforms the EU may expect a complete collapse.

Sergei Vasilenkov


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