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Saturday 10 March 2012

Industry Wants More and pushes hard for Reforms. Alternative sought After as well!Akhilesh set to become Uttar Pradesh CM!

Industry Wants More and pushes hard for Reforms. Alternative sought After as well!Akhilesh set to become Uttar Pradesh CM!

Indian Holocaust My Father`s Life and Time - Eight HUNDRED TWELVE

Palash Biswas
Industry Wants More and pushes hard for Reforms. Alternative sought After as well!

Akhilesh set to become Uttar Pradesh CM!Rise of regional power promotes Corporate India to bargain hard. TMC and other regioal parties want Mid term elections.mulayam is said to be overambitious for Primeministership and it is not a bad idea for the Industry.if akhilesh becomes UP CM at all, it would be desert strom in Ruling hegemony Politics. India incs is eying on Mid Term Elections because the government losing popular mandate has not the political will to defend corporate interests as it had been doing!The scuttlebutt of a mid-term election has been fairly launched after the poor showing by the Congress in recently concluded state elections, with railway minister Dinesh Trivedi of the Trinamool Congress saying on Wednesday that "if other parties are asking for it, then the government should announce early mid-term polls".

Industry associations have welcomed the Reserve Bank's cut in banks' cash reserve ratio rule, but say they want more. The central bank on Friday announced a 75-basis point cut in the CRR.India's central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves to ease a cash squeeze in the banking system that threatens to deepen an economic slowdown.The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 4.75 percent from 5.5 percent, according to an e-mailed statement in Mumbai yesterday. The move, the first such action outside a policy meeting since July 2010, will add 480 billion rupees ($9.6 billion) into lenders, it said. The bank last reduced the ratio by 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, on Jan. 24.The unscheduled step before a March 15 policy review underscores the RBI's concern the shortage of cash in the banking system will hurt the economy, forecast to expand the least in three years in the fiscal period ending March 31. Asian nations including China and the Philippines have eased monetary policy to spur growth amid Europe's debt crisis.

"There is no question of a mid-term poll. The Union government will last its full term."

That was Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan, looking to compensate with manufactured, wide-eyed indignation for what she manifestly lacked in conviction, in response to a question on whether the Congress' drubbing in the Assembly election had rendered a mid-term election inevitable.

Heading a lame-duck government, and living in mortal fear of one's recalcitrant allies, may not seem a particularly gratifying way of staying alive. But given the down-and-out state that the Congress finds itself in – where, given the overwhelming mood of anti-Congressism, it would be trounced in a general election today – the best that it can hope to achieve is hobble along for the next couple of years. This at least lets it live to fight another day.

But as it turns out, even the luxury of a lame-duck life may be beyond the Congress.

Among allies and regional parties that would love to see an early election are Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, the Akali Dal and AIADMK. Neutral, but not against the idea of a mid-term poll, would be the BJP, Biju Janata Dal, Sharad Pawar's NCP and the Janata Dal (U) of Nitish Kumar.

Ranged clearly against a poll now would be the Congress, the DMK and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

Already, the firebombs from the Congress' biggest (and most troublesome) UPA ally, the Trinamool Congress, have gained in intensity. Barely a day after the results came in, Trinamool leader and Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi, stated the obvious fact that the political momentum for a mid-term election was picking up.

The Trinamool, he said at a forum hosted by the Indian Express, "may … be happy to have a mid-term poll now rather than two years later." That sentiment in favour of mid-term elections was more widely shared, he added. "Why only TMC? I feel (that) after yesterday's result… if I was the Samajwadi Party, I would be very happy to have a general election tomorrow so I can increase my tally because I have the momentum."

Trivedi was quick to backtrack on his statement on Thursday, reportedly after being pulled up by his leader Mamata Banerjee for his remarks. He said these had been made in a personal capacity at a discussion forum, and did not reflect the views of his party, which a crucial member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government.

However the Bharatiya Janata Party was quick to latch on to the suggestion of a mid-term poll, saying the time for elections had come and it would be Congress's own doing if one of their allies walks out.

Trivedi expressed the wide-spread fear that the drubbing of the Congress in assembly elections would lead to a further policy paralysis. As it is, the party will now find it difficult to get its nominee elected as President of India, with states having a major say in the matter.

Trivedi had said that "policy paralysis will be more acute" after the 2012 assembly election results. Besides the general budget and the railways budget, the government plans to introduce bills for foreign investment in retail, the lokpal bill, the women's reservation bill and massive educational reforms in the upcoming budget session of Parliament, as well as a steep hike in oil prices.

"There is a fear that big ticket reforms will be difficult. The parties have political ambitions. The government has to make a tight-rope walk. Numbers are a reality, you cannot change the numbers. We need to be real," he had said on Wednesday.

If there was a perception that the voters' mood in the Assembly elections reflected an anti-Congress sentiment, even the BJP, Trivedi said, would want an election now. "If everybody wants an election, there will be an election."

A day later, however, Trivedi was looking to dial back his remarks, claiming that he had articulated them in an academic, apolitical context, and that he wasn't speaking on his party's behalf. But no one is convinced by that claim.

Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee may have come across as a rabble-rouser who is picking a fight with the Congress at every turn, even though her party is a constituent of the UPA. But she is merely building up for a big-enough cause on which to abandon the Congress, walk out of the UPA – and perhaps force a mid-term election. A politically inept, tone-deaf Congress is certain to provide her many such reasons for a divorce.

Didi calculates that her party's best interests lie in going it alone in West Bengal in the next general elections. That would free it of the taint by association with the discredited Congress, and since the latter has been reduced to complete irrelevance in the State, and with the Left Front still nursing its wounds, she perhaps reckons that the Trinamool can sweep the elections, particularly if they are held early, and secure 30 or more seats, against the 19 it holds. Expect more firebombs from her in the coming months, perhaps decisively lethal this time around.

The Samajwadi Party too has much the same calculation in mind. Extrapolating from its sweep of the Assembly elections, it can hope to improve vastly on its 22 seats in the event of a mid-term election – and perhaps secure as many as 40-50 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats from the State. That alone gives it an incentive to bring down the UPA government .

For exactly the same reason, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, which has 21 Lok Sabha seats, will not be keen on an early election. And for that reason, it may even consider offering support, particularly if the Samajwadi Party withdraws support from the outside that it had extended. A sweetener for such a deal could see the slowing down or withdrawal of the CBI cases against her and her ministers on charges of corruption, which were always only a political instrument to browbeat her.

In Tamil Nadu, another of the 'big States', which sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK, which holds.

only nine seats, has a stake in early elections. The DMK, the scandal-tainted constituent of the UPA which stands discredited in the State, secured 19 seats in 2009, and will continue to prop up the Congress-led government. But Jayalalithaa reckons that in the event of an early election, she can make a clean sweep of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu (plus one more in Pondicherry). In the context of her recent 64th birthday celebrations, she openly said that she expects her party workers to "gift" her 40 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections.

Curiously, however, the BJP is perhaps the one major national party where there is a dissonance about a mid-term election. As the recently Assembly elections revealed, the party has not been able to improve on its vote share and seats tally, even in a politically significant state like Uttar Pradesh. Even so, most segments in the party will likely reckon that the BJP will be the natural beneficiary of an anti-Congress wave at the national level, of which there are more than adequate signs. And if it fashions together a cogent alliance, by bringing in the AIADMK and others, it perhaps stands a reasonable shot at regaining power as the head of an alliance.

But, ironically, there is one significant hurdle to the BJP's readiness to push for early elections – and that comes in the substantial form of Narendra Modi. Although he has himself never articulated it openly, Modi is a frontrunner as the BJP's candidate for prime ministership, but he would prefer that the general elections be held after the Gujarat Assembly elections in December this year. If the BJP returns to power in convincing fashion in the State, his candidacy, which still faces pockets of resistance within the party and the broader alliance that it heads, will be vastly strengthened. An early election would deny him the chance to prove yet again his hold on the State.

Even so, if a mid-term election is forced upon the country by the early exit of a UPA constituent, and the Congress' inability to support from elsewhere, the BJP, and Modi, will likely embrace the opportunity with vigour, perhaps without projecting any one leader as a prime ministerial candidate.

The odds of an early election, thus, revolve around the political calculations of current and future UPA allies. For now, there is just way too much incentive for the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party, who literally own their respective states, to bring down the tottering government.

All it will take for that to happen is an accident. And on that count, you can be sure that the Congress, and its inept leaders and motormouth spokespersons, will deliver.

On that count, this isn't just a lame-duck government. This is a government whose goose is well and truly cooked.

Akhilesh Yadav seems to be emerging as the next Chief Minister of Uttar pradesh, Samajwadi party sources said tonight, a day ahead of the SP legislature party meeting.Officially, a decision on 38-year-old state SP president Akhilesh or his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav would be taken only tomorrow at the legislature party meeting being held within four days after the SP swept to power with a thumping win in the state Assembly polls.

Party sources said that the senior members like Azam Khan and Akhilesh's uncle, Shivpal Singh Yadav, who were in favour of the father taking over as CM, were spoken to by Mulayam Singh.

It was not clear whether they had come around to Akhilesh's appointment but there were indications that he would be handed over reins of the state.
There reports that Azam Khan will be offered the UP Assembly Speaker's post while Shivpal will be accomodated with a key ministerial portfolio.

On his part, Mulayam Singh kept up the suspense. "We don't have anything to say today. The legislature party will meet tomorrow when the leader will be chosen. All MLAs and MPs will take part in the meeting,"he told reporters here.

Akhilesh too added to the guessing game by evading questions on the chief ministership issue.
Ever since the election results were out, there has been speculation as to who would be the chief minister. A number of newly-elected MLAs want Akhilesh as the new CM, crediting him with the party's change of fortunes with his spirited campaign before and during the elections.

The SP got a majority in the 403-member Assembly by winning 224 seats.

However, some of the senior leaders felt that Mulayam should take charge and not allow any bad blood at the start of a new innings for the SP.

This section is of the view that the Samajwadi veteran would be a better choice at this moment when there has been a sudden outbreak of violent incidents in the state, which it sees as a deliberate attempt to sully the party's image.

The situation requires handling by a seasoned leader rather that a greenhorn in administration, they feel.

Azam Khan met Mulayam Singh tonight and suggested that the SP supremo should become the CM. Party sources said there was no discussion at the meeting on Khan getting the Speaker's post.
"Law and order situation will be improved. It will be better. If anyone is found indulging in goondaism, even if he is a SP worker, he will be punished severely," Mulayam told reporters after he called the Director General of Police (DGP) and Chief Secretary Anup Kumar Mishra and reviewed the situation.

"The current liquidity situation is hurting economic growth and that explains the emergency move," said Vivek Rajpal, a Mumbai-based fixed-income strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. "The stressful liquidity condition is not healthy for expanding credit needs of the economy."

Lenders borrowed an average 1.33 trillion rupees a day from the Reserve Bank so far this month, according to central bank data, more than double the 600 billion-rupee limit favored by the monetary authority, and signaling their shortage of funds.
'Comfort Level'

The reduction, which was announced after markets closed yesterday, is effective from March 10, according to the statement. The central bank lowered the cash reserve ratio in anticipation of companies withdrawing money from the system to pay taxes by a March 15 deadline.

"The liquidity deficit is expected to increase significantly during the second week of March due to advance tax outflows," the central bank said in the statement. "Thus, the overall deficit in the system persists above the comfort level of the Reserve Bank."

The rupee strengthened 0.9 percent to 49.8550 per dollar at the close in Mumbai yesterday. It has rebounded about 6.5 percent so far in 2012 after sliding 16 percent last year, the worst fall in Asia. The BSE India Sensitive Index (SENSEX) advanced 2.1 percent. The yield on the 8.79 percent note due November 2021 rose four basis points to 8.29 percent.

Cash availability with Indian lenders dropped after the central bank bought rupees to stem the decline in the currency, and companies borrowed to finance imports, said Roy Paul, a deputy general manager at Federal Bank Ltd. (FB) in Mumbai.

BRIC Nations
Economic expansion in India is already waning after the central bank raised interest rates by 3.75 percentage points between March 2010 and October 2011 to tame the fastest inflation among BRIC nations that include Brazil, Russia and China. India's gross domestic product rose 6.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the weakest expansion since the first quarter of 2009.

To ease the liquidity shortage in the banking system, the Reserve Bank has also injected about 1.2 trillion rupees this fiscal year purchasing government bonds, the central bank said.

China reduced the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves by half a percentage point to 20.5 percent from Feb. 24. The Philippines central bank lowered the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits by a quarter of a percentage point to 4 percent on March 1.

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