When War Games Go Live. Preparing to Attack Iran. "Simulating World War III"
by Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, January 8, 2012
With ongoing war games on both sides, armed hostilities between the US-Israel led coalition and Iran are, according to Israeli military analysts, "dangerously close".
There has been a massive deployment of troops which have been dispatched to the Middle East, not to mention the redeployment of US and allied troops previously stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Nine thousand US troops have been dispatched to Israel to participate in what is described by the Israeli press as the largest joint air defense war exercise in Israeli history.
The drill, called “Austere Challenge 12,” is scheduled to take place within the next few weeks. Its stated purpose "is to test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems, especially the “Arrow” system, which the country specifically developed with help from the US to intercept Iranian missiles."
In the course of December, Iran conducted its own war games with a major ten days naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, (December 24, 2011- January 2, 2012).
Missile defense and naval war games are being conducted simultaneously. While Israel and the US are preparing to launch major naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, Tehran has announced that it plans to conduct major naval exercises in February.
An impressive deployment of troops and advanced military hardware is unfolding.
Meanwhile, Israel has become a de facto US military outpost. US and Israeli command structures are being integrated, with close consultations between the Pentagon and Israel's Ministry of Defense.
A large number of US troops will be stationed in Israel once the war games are completed.
The assumption of this military deployment is the staging of a joint US-Israeli air attack on Iran. Military escalation towards a regional war is part of the military scenario.
Ultimately Israel is an American pawn.
The people of Israel are the unspoken victims of US military ambitions, which consist in the conquest and "recolonization" --under a US mandate-- of the Anglo-Persian oil empire.
The History of War Planning: "Theater Iran Near Term" (TIRANNT)
The history of war planning including war games and simulations directed against Iran is essential to an understanding of recent developments in the Persian Gulf.
Active war preparations directed against Iran (with the involvement of Israel and NATO) were initiated in May 2003, one month after the invasion and occupation of Iraq. It should be understood that from the outset of these war preparations, a World War III scenario was envisaged by US war planners.
The assumption of escalation was embedded in the simulations and the war games.
Moreover, the war on Iran was formulated as a "Global Strike" plan involving centralized military decision-making and coordination by US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). A "Concept Plan" entitled CONPLAN 8022 was established in 2003. The operational CONCEPT PLAN (CONPLAN) 8022 is described as "an actual plan that the Navy and the Air Force translate into strike package for their submarines and bombers."
A simulated scenario of an all out bombing campaign against Iran entitled "Theater Iran Near Term" was implemented in May 2003. (To be noted, there have been numerous simulations and war games which have remained classified). .
Code named by US military planners as TIRANNT, "Theater Iran Near Term" had identified several thousand targets inside Iran as part of a "Shock and Awe" Blitzkrieg. (The analysis contained in this section is based on my earlier 2007 article entitled Theater Iran Near Term, Global Research, February 21, 2007)
What distinguishes the TIRANNT simulations in relation to previous (pre-2003) war game scenarios, is that a) they were conducted in the wake of the Iraq war and b) the Blitzkrieg assumptions behind TIRANNT are similar to those used in the intense March 2003 bombing campaign directed against Iraq.
In other words, the bombing campaign scenarios under TIRANNT are not limited to surgical strikes directed against Iran's nuclear facilities. They also involve an "invasion scenario", the deployment of Marines Corps, as well as "the mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability operations after regime change."
The assessment of these war games is crucial in evaluating recent developments in the Persian Gulf because it suggests that if an attack on Iran is implemented it will inevitably evolve towards an all out bombing campaign as well as a ground war.
Confirmed by Arkin, the active component of the Iran military agenda was launched in May 2003 "when modelers and intelligence specialists pulled together the data needed for theater-level (meaning large-scale) scenario analysis for Iran." (Arkin, op cit). In October 2003, different theater scenarios for an Iran war were contemplated:
It is worth noting that following the implementation of TIRANNT, starting in 2004, there was a stepped up delivery of weapons systems to Israel.
Military Alliances. Simulating World War III
A World War III scenario has been the object of numerous simulations and war games, going back to the Cold War era.
We have no details regarding the geopolitical assumptions underlying the TIRANNT war scenarios, --i.e. regarding analysis of major military actors, alliances, etc. From the available information, the simulations pertained to an all out war (bombing campaign and ground war) directed against Iran, without taking into account possible responses by Iran's allies, namely China and Russia.
In 2006, The Pentagon launched another set of war simulations entitled Vigilant Shield 07 (conducted from September through December 2006). These war simulations were not limited to a single Middle East war theater as in the case of TIRANNT (e.g. Iran), they also included Russia, China and North Korea.
The core assumption behind Vigilant Shield 07 is "Global Warfare". In the light of recent war preparations directed against Iran, the Road to Conflict in the Vigilant Shield 07 war games should be examined very carefully. They anticipate the "New Cold War". They reflect US foreign policy and military doctrine during both the Bush and Obama administrations. The declared enemies of America under Vigilant Shield are Irmingham [Iran], Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya [China]
Vigilant Shield 07 is a World War III Scenario which also includes an active and aggressive role for North Korea.
The simulations are predicated on the assumption that Iran constitutes a nuclear threat and that Russia and North Korea --which are allies of Iran-- will attack America and that America and its allies will wage a pre-emptive (defensive) war.
While China is included in the simulations as a threat as well as an enemy of America, it is not directly involved, in the simulaitons, in attacking America.
The war simulations commence with Iran and Russia conducting joint air defense exercises, followed by nuclear testing by North Korea.
A terrorist attack on America is also contemplated in Vigilant Shield 07 based on the assumption that the "axis of evil" "rogue states" are supporting "non-State" terrorist organizations.
The diplomatic agenda is also envisaged as well as a media campaign to discredit Russia and Iran.
It should be understood that the conduct of these war scenarios with America under attack is also intended as an instrument of internal propaganda within the upper the echelons of Military, Intelligence and participating government agencies, with a view to developing a an unbending consensus pertaining to the preemptive war doctrine, --i.e that the threat against the "American Homeland" is "real" and that a pre-emptive attack --including the use of US nuclear weapons-- against rogue enemies is justified. And that premeptive warfare is an instrument of peacemaking which contributes to global security.
Irmingham [Iran], Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya [China]
Complacency of Western Public Opinion
The complacency of Western public opinion (including segments of the US anti-war movement) is disturbing.
No concern has been expressed at the political level as to the likely consequences of a US-NATO-Israel attack on Iran using US and/or Israeli nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state.
Moreover, public opinion is led to believe that the war will be limited to surgical strikes directed against Iran's nuclear facilities and that neither Russia nor China will intervene.
The war on Iran and the dangers of escalation are not considered "front page news." The mainstream media has excluded in-depth analysis and debate on the implications of these war plans.
The absence of public awareness, the complacency of the antiwar movement as well as the weakness of organized social movements indelibly contribute to the real possibility that this war could be carried out, leading to the unthinkable: a nuclear holocaust over a large part of the Middle East and Central Asia involving millions of civilian casualties.
It should be noted that a nuclear nightmare would occur even if nuclear weapons are not used.
The bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities using conventional weapons would contribute to unleashing a Chernobyl-Fukushima type disaster with extensive radioactive fallout.Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa. He is the Founder and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal and Editor of the globalresearch.ca website. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America's "War on Terrorism"(2005). His most recent book is entitled Towards a World War III Scenario: The Dangers of Nuclear War (2011). He has taught as Visiting Professor at universities in Western Europe, South East Asia and Latin America, acted as an adviser to governments of developing countries and as a consultant for the several international organizations. Prof. Chossudovsky is a signatory of the Kuala Lumpur declaration to criminalize war and recipient of the Human Rights Prize of the Society for the Protection of Civil Rights and Human Dignity (GBM), Berlin, Germany. He is also a contributor to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. His writings have been published in more than twenty languages.
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
When War Games Go Live. Preparing to Attack Iran. "Simulating World War III"
Posted by Excalliber Stevens at 12:06