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Saturday, 30 March 2013

THE REALITY BEHIND GUJARAT MODEL Did you know ?




THE REALITY BEHIND GUJARAT MODEL

Did you know ?

• Wages 
The wage rates of casual and regular workers of both men and women workers in rural and urban areas are very low compared to other States. As per the latest National Sample Survey Office statistics, the daily wage rates of casual men and women workers in rural areas are lower than the corresponding rates in India, with the State ranking 14th (Rs.69) and ninth (Rs.56) in men's and women's wage rates respectively among the major 20 States. In the case of urban casual workers' daily wages, the State ranked seventh (Rs.109) and 14th (Rs.56) for male and female wage rates. In the case of regular rural workers also the State ranked 17th (Rs.152) and ninth (Rs.108) in the male and female wage rates respectively. The corresponding ranks for urban areas are 18th (Rs.205) and 13th (Rs.182) respectively among the major 20 States in India. According to NSSO 2011 figures about 98 per cent of the women workers and about 89 per cent of the male workers in the State are engaged in informal work .

• Nutrition
The NFHS-3 tells us that 47 per cent of children below the age of three in the State were underweight. That figure was 45 per cent in NFHS-2. That's about twice the average for sub-Saharan Africa. It is also marginally higher than the nationwide average of 46 per cent. The percentage of Gujarat's children who are 'wasted' also went up from 16 to 17 per cent between the two NFHS surveys
According to statistics from a report of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, "Children in India, 2012—A Statistical Appraisal", between 40 and 50 per cent of children in Gujarat are underweight, which bursts one more myth in Gujarat's story of growth. Other States in this low weight category are Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. Human Development Report 2011 said around half of Gujarat's children were malnourished.

• Gujarat is the 7th worst state in adult men having a body mass index of less than 18.5.

• Infant mortality :
Infant mortality is high in Gujarat, which ranks 11th countrywide in the rate of decline of infant mortality. According to "Children in India, 2012", the infant mortality rate in Gujarat was still high, with 44 fatalities of infants per 1,000 live births.
In its 2012 State-wise report, the United Nation's Children's Fund (UNICEF) said, "Almost every second child in Gujarat under the age of five years is undernourished and three out of four are anaemic. Infant and maternal mortality rates have reduced very slowly in the last decade…. One mother in three in Gujarat struggles with acute under-nutrition…."

• child marriage : 
Gujarat ranks fourth in reported cases of child marriage.

• School dropout rate : United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) statistics show that Gujarat ranks 18th when it comes to success in keeping children in schools. 59% school drop out

• The school life expectancy of children in Kerala (which ranks first) is 11.33 years, while that of children in Gujarat is 8.79 years.

• percentage of reduction of poverty : 
Statistics of the NSSO show that the percentage of reduction of poverty between 2004 and 2010 was the lowest in Gujarat, at 8.6 per cent.

• Water:
According to Census 2011, 43 per cent of the rural households in Gujarat get water supply on their premises and 16.7 per cent get treated water from a common tap

• Toilets: 
The data show that 67 per cent of rural households in the State have no access to toilets and members of more than 65 per cent of the households defecate in the open, very often polluting common water sources. Waste collection and disposal are matters practically unheard of. The State ranks 10th in the use of latrines

• Comprehensive Environmental Pollution Index (CEPI): 
Anything over 70 on this index is considered to have crossed critical levels, that is, the pollution exceeds the capacity of the environment to handle it and it becomes a dangerous health hazard. According to statistics from the Central Pollution Control Board, Ankleshwar and Vapi in Gujarat top the list of 88 severely polluted industrial areas in India. Ankleshwar has a CEPI rating of 88.50 while Vapi's is 88.09. Of the 88 areas, eight are in Gujarat


• Employment growth: 
NSSO data show that in Gujarat , growth in employment has dropped to almost zero in the past 12 years

• Human Development Index : 
Gujarat (0.519) stands 11th in Human Development Index among the states in India. Where Kerala(0.790) stands first.

• Sex ratio :
Gujarat (918) stands 24th . where kerala(1084) stands first.

• Vaccination coverage :
In Gujarat percentage of children between 12-23 months of age who received all recommended vaccines is 45 % . that is in 19th among the states in India.

• Gujarat stands 12th in literacy among the states in india

• In Gujarat 28.2% man and 32.3 % women are underweight .

• In Gujarat percentage of children delivered in hospital is only 55%


Why do we STILL not know about the killer of Narendra Modi’s Minister, Haren Pandya?




Each time Modi's name is raised, there are two voices that are heard. Both are very vociferous. One believes he is a criminal. The other that he is a saint.
I've unfortunately not spent too much time in the past thinking about Modi – but now that he is certain (in my view) to be BJP's nominee as PM, I think I should become clear about Modi's credentials.
In the coming day/s and week/s, time permitting, I'm going to read and find out more about Modi. I believe in no one. I must always seek the answer myself.
This is just like I did before forming my view on the climate change controversy.
As you might know, I do not see CO2 as a problem but as almost certainly beneficial for life on earth – a conclusion I arrived at after months of studying the matter very carefully including reading a large number of books and articles. As a result of this study I am now able to defend my view clearly can debate with anyone on this issue.
I need to undertake similar due diligence for Modi.
Modi's record as administrator is of interest to all of us, but that's not going to be the focus of my questions.
In the past I've generally raised issues about Modi, found no time to arrive at conclusive answers, and moved on. But this time I will need to find the answer.
My plan is to study bits and pieces of information, then ask questions. See what the weight of evidence points to.
So here goes, with first, a cut-paste study of Haren Pandya's murder from three key sources. Then a brief set of questions and answers.
===
"I met him at his chamber after the meeting. [Deputy home minister] Amit Shah was sitting there. Modi asked me, 'Why are you asking these kinds of questions in public?' I said, 'What shall I do? It is not a private matter.' Then he looked sternly into my eyes and said, 'Khatam ho jaoge Govardhanbhai…'—You're going to get finished.'"
Zadaphia moves around with a police escort and a dozen armed security men; as a former deputy home minister—and a controversial one at that—he was offered protection by the government after the riots. Pandya, however, did not have security guards. "Haren was bold," Zadaphia said. "He thought nothing would happen to him. That was a mistake."
A tall and handsome Brahmin with a fine RSS pedigree and excellent connections in the media, Pandya was a formidable political rival for Modi within the state BJP.The two clashed publicly for the first time in 2001, when Modi was in search of a safe assembly seat to contest after his appointment as CM. He wanted to run from Pandya's constituency, Ellisbridge in Ahmedabad—a very safe seat for the BJP. But Pandya refused to yield to Modi's wishes. As a state BJP functionary recalled, "Haren said, 'Ask me to vacate my seat for a young man in the BJP—I'll do it. But not for that fellow.'"
In May 2002, three months after the start of the riots, Pandya secretly gave a deposition to an independent fact-finding panel led by Justice VR Krishna Iyer. Modi could not have known what Pandya said, but written records show that Modi's principal secretary, PK Mishra, instructed the director-general of state intelligence to track Pandya's movements, and in particular those related to the fact-finding panel. The intelligence director took down the instructions in a register—the entry for 7 June 2002 reads as follows: "Dr PK Mishra added that Shri Harenbhai Pandya, minister for revenue is suspected to be the minister involved in the matter. Thereafter, he gave one mobile number 9824030629 and asked for getting call details."
Five days later, on 12 June 2002, there is another entry in the register: "Informed Dr PK Mishra that the minister who is suspected to have met the private inquiry commission (Justice VR Krishna Iyer) is known to be Mr Haren Pandya. I also informed that the matter cannot be given in writing as this issue is quite sensitive and not connected with the charter of duties given to State intelligence Bureau vide Bombay Police Manual. It is learnt that the telephone number 9824030629 is the mobile phone of Shri Harenbhai Pandya."
News reports soon revealed that an unnamed minister in Modi's cabinet had deposed before the Iyer commission, and described for the first time the meeting at Modi's residence on the night of the train burning, at which Modi allegedly told his top police and intelligence officers that there would be justice for Godhra the next day, and ordered the police not to stand in the way of the "Hindu backlash".
The leak provided sufficient evidence for Modi to press a case of indiscipline against Pandya within the BJP, and two months later Pandya was forced to resign from the cabinet. But Modi was not finished. The state elections were due in December 2002, and Modi saw an opportunity to deny Pandya the Ellisbridge seat that he had refused to vacate a year earlier. "Modi never forgets, and never forgives," the BJP insider close to the chief minister told me. "It doesn't help a politician to have such longterm vengeance."
And so Modi denied Pandya the constituency he had represented for 15 years. The leadership of both the RSS and the BJP objected and asked Modi to relent, but he refused. Near the end of November, RSS leader Madan Das Devi went to meet Modi at his residence, carrying a message from the RSS supremo KS Sudarshan, his deputy Mohan Bhagawat, LK Advani and AB Vajpayee: Stop arguing, don't create division before the elections, and give Pandya his seat. Devi stayed late into the night, but Modi held his ground, the state party functionary said: "He knew he would start getting phone calls from [RSS headquarters] Nagpur and Delhi, since he did not listen to Devi. So that night, by 3 am, he got himself admitted into the Gandhinagar Civil Hospital for exhaustion and fatigue."
Pandya, according to the party functionary, charged to the hospital to confront Modi. "Haren told him, 'Don't sleep like a coward. Have the guts to say no to me.'" Modi refused to budge, and the RSS and BJP leaders finally gave in. Modi left the hospital after two days, and handed Pandya's seat to a newcomer. And in December, he came back to power riding the post-Godhra wave of communal polarisation.
Pandya, for his part, started to meet with every top leader in the BJP and RSS—in Delhi and in Nagpur—telling them that Modi would destroy the party and the Sangh for his own personal gain. Senior BJP figures, who still regarded Pandya as a valuable asset to the party, decided to transfer him to headquarters in Delhi as a member of the national executive or a party spokesman. "Modi even tried to scuttle that," Zadaphia told me. "Pandya going to Delhi was going to be harmful for Modi in the long run."
Three months later, in March 2003, on the day after Pandya received a fax from the party president ordering his shift to Delhi, he was murdered in Ahmedabad. The Gujarat police and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) announced that Pandya had been assassinated in a joint operation between Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Dubai-based underworld don Dawood Ibrahim. Twelve men were arrested and charged with Pandya's murder, but eight years later, in September 2011, the Gujarat High Court acquitted every single one and rubbished the entire case. "The investigation has all throughout been botched up and blinkered," the judge said. "The investigating officers concerned ought to be held accountable for their ineptitude resulting into injustice, huge harassment of many persons concerned and enormous waste of public resources and public time of the courts."
Pandya's father, Vithalbhai, has publicly accused Modi of ordering his son's killing, and moved a petition in the Supreme Court calling for the chief minister to be investigated, though the court dismissed it, citing a lack of evidence.
RB Sreekumar, who headed the state intelligence for a year soon after the riot, told me that he had been asked by the chief minister's office to regularly give details about the movements and activities of Haren Pandya.
"I'm not saying Modi got Haren Pandya killed. I have no evidence. But the fact remains—anyone who speaks against Modi from inside the BJP gets finished either physically or politically," Zadaphia told me.
For the first few months after Pandya's murder, the investigation was handled by the Gujarat police crime branch. The officer in charge was DG Vanzara, who is now in jail for the "fake encounter" of a gangster, Sohrabuddin Sheikh, and his wife; Vanzara is also under investigation for his role in another half-dozen extra-judicial assassinations. When the Pandya case was transferred to the CBI, one of Vanzara's colleagues, Abhay Chudasama—now also jailed in the Sohrabuddin killing—was sent on deputation to the bureau to help manage the investigation. Both of the corrupt officers who ran the Pandya investigation were also part of the extortion racket allegedly run by Amit Shah, Modi's deputy home minister. Shah, one of Modi's favourites, was arrested on charges of extortion and conspiracy in the fake encounter killings and is now out on bail, though the Supreme Court has denied him permission to set foot in Gujarat; he currently lives in room number two at Gujarat Bhavan in Delhi.
==
When I read the other day that the Gujarat high court had dismissed the prosecution case in the matter of Haren Pandya's murder and expressed severe doubts about how the CBI had conducted its investigations, I could not agree more. My mind went back to 2003 when in the aftermath of the murder a CBI officer came to my office to investigate the 'role' of The Times Of India (TOI) in the affair! Don't laugh, that's what had happened.
A CBI deputy superintendent of police (DSP) – some Gupta, first name I forget- landed up in my office in Ahmedabad where I was posted then as the resident editor of the TOI and wanted to talk to me. "We have been told that the assailants figured out where they would find Pandya after reading your paper. Can you throw some light on this matter?"  I should have been stunned on hearing that but wasn't. That was because a few days earlier one of our correspondents told me that the crime branch of Ahmedabad police had been speculating on this matter. On asking which great man in the crime branch was having these fanciful ideas, the correspondent said it was the SP, DG Vanzara (this gentleman is now in Sabarmati jail for bumping off Sohrabuddin Sheikh and his wife Kauser Bee). And what was the reason for Vanzara's line of thought? The correspondent said because we had published how Pandya was spending his days now that he was neither a minister nor MLA. For those who came in late, Pandya had been denied a seat in the 2002 assembly elections, so the 41-year-old leader had nothing much to do in February 2003. He was busy going for long morning walks in Law Gardens of Ahmedabad in the morning and playing golf in the evening. TOI had written in a feature story about what politicians who had lost or kept away for elections were doing.
The CBI DSP (in newspapers we often describe CBI men as 'sleuths' but I refuse to use that term for Gupta or even his bosses who must have sent him to our office) denied that he had been tipped off by Vanzara and company to follow this line of investigation. He said: "We have talked to the house owner where the assailant had rented a room. And he has told us that the suspect only used to read TOI. In fact he used to pore through TOI the whole day." By this time I was maha miffed. Earlier that day some stationery retailer had gifted me two fancy note books and two perfumed rubbers. This was lying on my table. I took this stuff and told him: "Mr Gupta you must be having children at home. Take these as gifts for them." Nonplussed, the CBI man took the stuff and I saw him off. Even as he left it was clear to me that the CBI was upto some shoddy investigation and this opinion got only strengthened when I read about the recent high court order.
I would imagine that Haren Pandya's wife Jagrutiben also feels the same about the investigations of CBI. In fact when the sessions court had sentenced the accused in 2007, instead of feeling happy she had gone public seeking a reinvestigation in the matter. Before his death earlier this year Haren's father,Vithal Pandya, had waged a long battle in this matter quite vociferous in stating that his son's murder was political. Now two sisters of Haren, along with Jagruti, have sought to reopen the case and have said that they would be representing to the Prime Minister.
Actually it is not too difficult to figure out that the prosecution case was faulty.According to the prosecution version, Haren Pandya was shot dead just as he arrived at Law Garden in his Maruti 800 for his morning walk around 7.20 am. The assailant pulled the trigger before he rolled up the window of his car and got out. But a forensic expert – who had deposed in the court – told me the injuries that Haren had showed that he could not have been shot from a gun pointing down at him (as would be if the assailant put the gun from outside). In fact the injuries had been down up. Add to this, the fact that no blood was found on the seat of the car and it is easy to see that Haren was probably murdered somewhere else and his body brought to the site from somewhere else in his car and dumped there.
It is also strange that the body of Haren Pandya lay there outside the busy Law Garden for three hours till his friends heard and rushed to the spot three hours later. Haren Pandya, earlier having been the home minister of the state, was quite well known and it looks unlikely that nobody discovered his body for so long. In fact many voices were heard in undertones in the aftermath of Pandya's murder that a large crowd had collected around the body at 8.30 am but they had melted perceiving it as a political murder. In fact due to this reason the area around Law Garden became unusually quiet. I also know that some top cops had also learnt of the murder before 9 am but they too kept silent -again perceiving it to be a political murder.

The prosecution's case was that Haren had been killed by assailants from Hyderabad to avenge the Gujarat riots of 2002. But the fact of the matter is that Haren was the minister in the Gujarat government who had secretly deposed before the Citizen's Tribunal about the riots and let it know many facts then not public. He had also in a cabinet meeting advocated that the bodies of the victims of Godhra carnage not be brought to Ahmedabad because that would arouse passion. But he was shouted down at the meeting by some ministers.
Whatever be the reason, Narendra Modi had thrown Haren Pandya out of his ministry in July 2002. Modi also ensured that Pandya was denied a ticket from his Ellisbridge constituency in the December 2002 assembly elections. This was even when pressure was put on Modi by Advani and Arun Jaitely to relent. In fact Jaitely found Modi's behaviour churlish and Advani happened to be the political guru of Pandya. After being forced out of electoral politics, Pandya was out in the cold contemplating what to do next when somebody decided to bump him off. The million dollar question is: who was that person?  
 
Source 3Who killed Haren Pandya? by Hartosh Singh Bal & Mahesh Langa, Tehelka March 12, 2005
The tapes of his conversation with the home secretary prior to his deposition before the Nanavati-Shah commission is not the only damaging evidence against the Gujarat government that Sreekumar has in his possession. Through his tenure as intelligence chief in Gujarat, a term that began on April 9, 2002, a month after the Godhra incident, Sreekumar maintained a diary of instructions given to him by senior officials in the state as well as Narendra Modi.
Perhaps, the most damaging of this information relates to instructions issued by the state government regarding Haren Pandya, Modi's foe within the Sangh Parivar ranks who was murdered a few months later.
On June 7, 2002, Sreekumar was asked by PK Mishra, Modi's principal secretary, to find out which minister in the Modi Cabinet had met an independent citizen's tribunal that included former Supreme Court Chief Justice VR Krishna Iyer. Mishra told Sreekumar that Haren Pandya, the then revenue minister, was suspected to be the one involved in the matter. Sreekumar was given the mobile number 9824030629 and told to obtain its call details. Pandya reportedly told the tribunal that the post-Godhra massacres were orchestrated by Modi, his officials and members of the Sangh Parivar.
On June 12, 2002, Mishra was told by Sreekumar that the minister suspected to have met the commission was none other than Haren Pandya. Sreekumar, however, refused to submit this information in writing. He said it was a sensitive matter and not connected with the charter of duties. Further call details of the number were handed over by OP Mathur, IGP (Administration and Security). It was learnt that Haren Pandya used this mobile.
On March 26, 2003, Haren Pandya was assassinated and his father Vithalbhai Pandya said that his son's assassination was "a political murder". Speaking to Tehelka, he blamed Modi for Pandya's murder. So embittered was Vithalbhai that he contested the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha against LK Advani, but lost.
This, incidentally, was not the only time the Modi government had issued instructions for tapping a senior politician's phone. At a meeting on April 16, 2002, Modi told Sreekumar that Congress leaders, in particular Shankersinh Vaghela, were responsible for the continuing communal violence in the state. The meeting (apart from Modi and Sreekumar) was attended by then DGP K. Chakravarti and the CM's PS PK Mishra and Modi's OSD. Sreekumar told Modi that he had no information regarding the involvement of the Congress leaders in communal violence. At this, Modi asked him to tap Vaghela's phone but Sreekumar refused saying he had no information on the basis of which he could order surveillance.

Interestingly, two days later, controversial IB Joint Director Rajinder Kumar, posted in Ahmedabad, sold the same line to Sreekumar. When Sreekumar sought specific information, the IB man said he had none. The IB had been one of the few claiming the Godhra incident was a 'pre-planned conspiracy'. It is still not clear how the IB was able to reach this conclusion within hours of the incident and questions have been raised about Kumar's proximity to Modi.
Sreekumar also documented the incident that was one of the main reasons for the Modi government to hound him. On August 9, 2002 at the Ahmedabad circuit house annexe, senior officials, who had been asked to attend the meeting convened by then Chief Election Commissioner JM Lyngdoh, assembled in a room next to the conference hall. Chief Secretary Subba Rao, Additional Chief Secretary Ashok Narayan, DGP K. Chakravarthi, Police Commissioner KR Kaushik, Principal Secretary (Revenue) CK Koshy, Relief Commissioner Shah and Joint Secretary (Home) K. Nityanandan were present.
At the meeting, Subba Rao told officials that they must maintain that complete normalcy has been restored in the state. When Lyngdoh arrived, officials said the situation was under control and total normalcy has been restored. The chief secretary also requested Lyngdoh to see the presentation prepared by Nityanandan. Interrupting Rao, Lyngdoh said that he was not interested in the presentations. He said that he was aware of the ground realities in the state. Lyngdoh refused to believe the officials' claim that normalcy was restored in the riot-hit areas. Lyngdoh said he had seen Sreekumar's reports about the situation and that these matched his own assessment.
==SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS==
It is almost certain that the investigation to find Pandya's killer was DELIBERATELYbotched up.
Why would a former senior Minister's death be treated so shabbily that even fundamentals of the investigation were incorrect? Nearly eight years of investigation and all the accused get scot free? And the wife of Pandya was clear a long time ago that this was a botched up investigation?
Something doesn't sound right.In any murder trial, there is mens rea, an intention to kill – someone must benefit.
Pandya was only deposed. He could have come back and proved inconvenient politically and in many other ways. He had also provided evidence, and was against the public display of burnt dead bodies. That was clearly one of the most DIRECT causes of the backlash and rioting.
In all my years of learning how to deal with such sensitive situations, in my training received at the National Academy from great experts like NC Saxena, in the training I imparted to fresh IAS recruits as Professor at the National Academy, I've never come across a more CRASS and directly inflammatory action by an administration.
"in complete disregard of the sensitivities of the relatives of the victims, and cannons of humanitarian, ethics and morality, these bodies were taken to Ahmedabad and paraded not only before the members of public but also for the media to report. . I have often thought as to how I would have felt if a relative of mine had been killed similarly and instead of quickly completing the legal formalities and handing over the body, it is taken 200 kilometers away, not because it is required so, but because a decision which was taken by the Head of the Government for the reason that are obvious to all except the blind. You may like to pause for a moment and think as to how you would have felt if a self seeking politician sitting in the state capital had directed the authorities of taking the body of any relative of yours to a distant place instead of handing it over to you as prescribed by the law. You also know that many of these dead bodies were of people not belonging to Ahmedabad city." [Source]
I would also like to bring to your notice the deposition of Shri P C Pande, the then Commissioner of Police, Ahmedabad City, before Justice Nanavati Commission on 18th August 2004. For your perusal the relevant portions are reproduced below:
"….. had not taken the decision of bringing the dead bodies to Ahmedabad. As I believe that the decision might have taken at the top level in the Government and it has not necessary for me to interfere in that decision……"
"….. When I know that about 58 bodies were being brought to Ahmedabad or that they have already brought, at that time, I had a feeling that looking to the communal situation of Ahmedabad, it is … sensitive and like a Tinder Box and therefore, in the prevailing circumstances, if these dead bodies are brought to Ahmedabad, then possibly it will create serious impacts…"
ACS Home Shri Ashok Narayan, in his cross examination before the Nanavati Commission had also confirmed that decision to bring dead bodies to Ahmedabad city was taken at higher level. In this higher level above him are the Chief Secretary, MOS Home and CM. [Source]
In brief, the situation is VERY SUSPICIOUS.
There are only a very few people who would have benefited from Hiren Pandya's death. His father believed it was directly Modi. It is very hard to find other names of potential beneficiaries of Pandya's murder.

Did Tulsiram Prajapati kill Pandya?

- a possible accused. Sure, but why? Why such a person who was a major threat only to one person: Modi?
Now, that's enough for one day.
I'm not Sherlock Holmes, but one can at least try to be Dr. Watson.
The murder mystery only deepens. More later when I get time to read more.


माओवादियों के खाने में मिलाया जहर, फिर मारी गोली


माओवादियों के खाने में मिलाया जहर, फिर मारी गोली


सच सबसे पहले जनज्वार पर 
झारखंड के चतरा जिले के लकरबंधा गांव में 27 मार्च को 10 माओवादियों को मारे जाने की पुलिसिया कहानी ने यू टर्न ले लिया है.माओवादियों की हत्या टीपीसी और सीआरपीएफ ने मिलकर की है.इस हत्याकांड के बाद माओवादियों से झारखंड में बिखरे करीब दर्जन भर छोटे-बड़े संगठनों की एकजुटता के प्रयासों को धक्का लगा है....

दिल्ली/रांची/गिरिडीह 

जनज्वार को मिली जानकारी के मुताबिक कुंडा थाना क्षेत्र के गांव लकरबंधा में माओवादियों और तृतीय प्रस्तुती कमेटी (टीपीसी) के लड़ाकों के बीच कोई मुठभेड़ नहीं हुई है.इस हत्याकांड को सीआरपीएफ और तृतीय प्रस्तुती कमेटी ने 27 मार्च की दोपहर संयुक्त रूप से मिलकर अंजाम दिया है.टीपीसी ने जहां खाने में जहर मिलाया है, वहीं सीआरपीएफ के जवानों ने बेहोश पड़े माओवादियों को गोली मारी है.
maoist-india-conffrence
गौरतलब है कि माओवादियों का करीब 30 लोगों का गुरिल्ला दस्ता अपनी रोजाना कार्यवाहियों को अंजाम देते हुए लकरबंधा गांव में ठहरा हुआ था.27 मार्च को गांव में ही दोपहर का खाना बनाते वक्त उसमें किसी ग्रामीण ने जहर मिला दिया.जब माओवादी बेहोशी की हालत में पहुंच गये तो टीपीसी के लोगों ने माओवादियों के असलहे-गोलियों को अपने कब्जे में लिया और सीआरपीएफ को आने के लिए बोल दिया. 

झारखंड के मानवाधिकार कार्यकर्ता शशिभूषण पाठक ने ग्रामीणों से मिली जानकारी के आधार पर बताया कि, 'टीपीसी और सीआरपीएफ के बीच पहले से माओवादियों को मारे जाने की योजना तय थी.जैसे ही टीपीसी के लोग माओवादियों के असलहे लूटकर भागे उसके चंद मिनट बाद वहां मौके पर सीआरपीएफ पहुंची.सीआरपीएफ ने चुनचुनकर माओवादियों के बड़े नेताओं की हत्या की और करीब 20 लोगों को गिरफ्तार किया।' 

सीआरपीएफ द्वारा मारे गये बड़े नेताओं में बिहार-झारखंड-छत्तीसगढ़ स्पेशल एरिया कमेटी के प्रवक्ता प्रशांत उर्फ लवलेश मुख्य तौर पर शामिल हैं.माना जा रहा है कि प्रशांत के मारे जाने के बाद झारखंड में माओवादियों से अलग हुए धड़ों को एकजुट किये जाने के प्रयासों पर धक्का लगेगा.करीब छह महीने पहले प्रशांत ने सभी धड़ों से शांतिविराम की अपील की थी.

शशिभूषण पाठक के अनुसार, 'प्रशांत की कोशिशों से सरकार परेशानी महसूस कर रही थी, क्योंकि पुलिस टीपीसी जैसे संगठनों को पैसा और सुरक्षा मुहैया कराकर झारखंड में सलवा जुडूम जैसी स्थिति पैदा करने पर आमादा है।' भाकपा (माओवादी) से अलग हुई टीपीसी या तृतीय प्रस्तुति कमेटी भाकपा माओवादियों के विरोधी गुट के रूप में जानी जाती है. 

माओवादियों को जहर खिलाये जाने के मामले में कुंडा थाना प्रभारी और चतरा एसपी से जानकारी लेने की कोशिश की गयी तो उनसे बात नहीं हो सकी है.कुंडा से पता चला है कि पुलिस के सभी उच्चाधिकारी कुंडा थाने में कैंप किये हुए हैं.पुलिसिया दावे की माने तो झारखंड के चतरा जिले के जंगलों में 28 मार्च की सूबह दो नक्सली गुटों की आपसी टकराव में तृतीय प्रस्तुति कमेटी के नक्सलियों ने भाकपा माओवादियों के कई कमांडरों समेत कम से कम दस को मार गिराया और उनके हथियार लूट लिए और 22 अन्य माओवादियों का अपहरण भी कर लिया है.

लेकिन असल सवाल यह है कि क्या पुलिस के पोस्टमार्टम रिपोर्ट में वह तथ्य सामने आयेंगे, जो दावे ग्रामीणों ने किये हैं !


मोदी मैकडोनॉल्ड



मोदी मैकडोनॉल्ड

श्री नारायण भाई कछाड़िया का नाम आपने कभी सुना है? अगर वे आनेवाले किसी समय में अमेरिका जाएं और वहां हिलेरी क्लिंटन से मुलाकात करके वापस लौट आएं तो क्या नारायण भाई के मिलने का महत्व इतना ज्यादा होगा कि हिलेरी क्लिंटन अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति पद के सर्वथा योग्य मान ली जाएंगी? आपको हंसी आ रही होगी और सबसे पहला सवाल आपका यही होगा कि यह नारायण भाई कछाड़िया हैं कौन जिनके मिलने भर से रिपब्लिकन हिलेरी क्लिंटन राष्ट्रपति पद के योग्य मान ली जाएंगी? और किसी नारायणभाई, हिलेरी क्लिंटन या फिर नारायणभाई का जिक्र मोदी के संदर्भ में क्यों किया जा रहा है? आइये थोड़ा तफ्सरा करते हैं।
पिछले दो दिनों से मीडिया में माहौल गर्म है कि अमेरिका का एक 18 सदस्यीय प्रतिनिधि मंडल गुजरात पहुंचा और वहां उन्होंने मुख्यमंत्री मोदी से मुलाकात की। इस 18 सदस्यीय प्रतिनिधि मंडल ने मोदी को अमेरिका आने का न्यौता दिया ताकि अमेरिका मोदी के मुख से गुजरात की विकास गाथा सुन सके। खूब खबरें चली। वाहवाहियां हुईं और कल्पनाशील पत्रकारों ने तो अपनी कल्पना के घोड़ों को दौड़ाकर अमेरिका तक पहुंचा भी दिया। कुछ ने तो वीजा भी दिला दिया और कुछ मीडियावालों ने मोदी मार्ग की सारी बंदिशें खत्म करते हुए उन्हें अमेरिका का लाड़ला दुलारा नेता भी बता दिया। मीडियावाले जो चाहें वह करें, उनका कोई क्या कर सकता है लेकिन क्या सचमुच अमेरिका मोदी पर महामना हुआ जा रहा है? या फिर मोदी की पीआर कंपनी ने एक और फिक्शन गढ़कर मीडिया की पुन: पुन: कर दिया। सच्चाई शायद यही है। 
अगर हमारे नारायण भाई कछाड़िया के हिलेरी क्लिंटन से मिल लेने से हिलेरी अमेरिका में राष्ट्रपति पद की दावेदार नहीं हो सकती तो किसी ऐरोन शॉक के नरेन्द्र मोदी से मिल लेने से अमेरिका खुश हुआ जैसा जुमला कैसे कहा जा सकता है? अपने नारायणभाई कछाड़िया भी जैसे गुजरात की अमरेली लोकसभा सीट से केन्द्र की प्रमुख विपक्षी पार्टी भाजपा के सांसद हैं वैसे ही ऐरोन शॉक भी अमेरिका की विपक्षी पार्टी रिपब्लिकन की ओर से वहां की लोकसभा के एक सांसद हैं। नारायणभाई तो तब भी राजनीति में अच्छा खासा तजुर्बा रखते हैं लेकिन ऐरोन अमेरिका की राजनीति में तो बच्चे ही हैं, निजी जीवन में भी उनकी कोई खास उम्र नहीं है। कुल जमा 31 साल की उम्र है। पहली बार हाउस आफ रिप्रेजेन्टेटिव के लिए चुने गये हैं और शिक्षा का व्यापार करते हैं।
इन्हीं ऐरोन के नेतृत्व में जो 18 सदस्यीय प्रतिनिधिमंडल मोदी से मिलने गुजरात पहुंचा था उसकी खबर ऐसे प्रसारित की गई मानों अमेरिका ने मोदी के लिए दरवाजा खोल दिया है। अगर अपने नारायणभाई चाहकर भी हिलेरी क्लिंटन के हितों के लिए भारत की किसी सरकारी नीति को प्रभावित नहीं कर सकते तो ऐरोन की क्या औकात कि वे अमेरिका की नीति या विदेश नीति को बदल देंगे? तिस पर मियां ऐरोन वहां सत्ताधारी दल के सदस्य भी नहीं है और न ही उनका अमेरिकी राजनीति में कोई ऐसा ओहदा होगा कि उनका मोदी से मिलना राजनीतिक तौर पर कोई मायने भी रखता होगा। ऐसे नौसिखिए और नौजवान सांसदों को इधर भारत में भी दुनिया घूमने का मौका मिलता है तो कहीं जाने से नहीं नहीं चूकते हैं। उन्हें ऐसा करना भी चाहिए क्योंकि ऐसा करने से अच्छा राजनीतिक अनुभव मिलता है। ऐरोन के साथ जो प्रतिनधिमंडल मोदी से मिलना पहुंचा था वह ऐसे ही जुगाड़ से लाये गये थे। अमेरिका में जो बीजेपी की अमेरिकी शाखा है जिसे ओवरसीज फ्रेन्ड्स आफ बीजेपी कहा जाता है, उसी ने कोई जुगाड़ मारकर ऐरोन को गुजरात दर्शन करा दिया, और मोदी के प्रचारतंत्र ने इसका ऐसा प्रचार कर दिया मानों सीधे ओबामा वीजा लिए दरवाजे पर खड़े हैं।
गाहे बेगाहे मोदी के मीडिया प्रबंधकों, पीआर एजंसियों की वह बेचैनी सामने आती रहती है जो मोदी के रास्ते की हर मुश्किल आसान करते रहते हैं। मोदी 2005 से अमेरिका में प्रतिबंधित हैं और ऐरोन के कह देने से वह प्रतिबंध खत्म नहीं होनेवाला। ऐरोन अगर इंडिया लाये गये थे और मोदी से मिलवाये गये थे तो उनका इतना कहने का तो फर्ज ही बनता था लेकिन लेकिन हमारे मोदी के प्रबंधकों की ऐसी क्या बेचैनी है कि अमेरिका में मोदी का बैंड बजाने पर तुले हुए हैं? व्हार्टन स्कूल निमंत्रण नहीं देता तो वहां एनआरआई को विशेष प्रसारण करके खुन्नस उतार ली जाती है और देशभर में खबर चलाई जाती है कि मोदी ने अमेरिका को संबोधित किया। वह तो आज के इस तकनीकि युग में एक अदना सा आदमी भी कर सकता है। अपना वेबकैम चालू करिए और अमेरिका ही क्या पूरा दुनिया को संबोधित कर दीजिए। संबोधन करना कोई सवाल है क्या? सवाल यह है कि आपको सुन कौन रहा है? और आप सुनाना किसको चाहते हैं?
ऐरोन जैसे सीनेटर थोक के भाव में घूमते रहते हैं। उनके गुजरात आने या न आने से न तो अमेरिका की किसी नीति को कोई फर्क पड़ता है और न ही भारत को। लेकिन मोदीवादी प्रचारतंत्र ऐसे प्रचारित कर रहा है मानों मोदी अब नरेन्द्र मोदी न होकर मैकडोनाल्ड मोदी हो गये हैं। राष्ट्रवाद भी मोदी जैसे नेताओं के पल्ले पड़ जाए तो क्या क्या रंग बदलता है, अंदाज लगाना मुश्किल हो जाता है।


दलित ईसाईयों को मुआवजा दे वेटिकन



दलित ईसाईयों को मुआवजा दे वेटिकन


ईसाई संगठन पुअर क्रिश्चियन लिबरेशन मूवमेंट ने गुड फ्राइडे पर पोप फ्रांसिस से भारत के कैथोलिक चर्च में सुधार लाने और चर्च द्वारा धर्मांतरित ईसाइयों के साथ विश्वासघात करने के बदले उन्हें वेटिकन की तरफ से मुआवजा देने की मांग की है। ईसाई नेता आर.एल.फ्रांसिस ने कहा कि भारत का चर्च धर्मांतरित ईसाइयों का विकास करने और उन्हें चर्च ढांचें में समानता उपलब्ध करवाने की जगह उन पर अनुसूचित जातियों का ठप्पा (टैग) लगवाने की तथाकथित लड़ाई सरकार से लड़ रहा है। जबकि ईसाइयत में जातिवाद के लिए कोई स्थान नहीं है।
मूवमेंट के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष आर.एल.फ्रांसिस ने कहा कि आज चर्च में आम ईसाई ही नहीं उनके अधिकारों की बात करने वाले पादरियों और ननों का भी चर्च व्यवस्था में शोषण और उत्पीड़न किया जा रहा है। समानता की वकालत करने वाली ईसाइयत में हिन्दू दलितों से अलग होकर ईसाइयत अपनाने वालों के साथ दोयम दर्जे का व्यवहार किया जा रहा है। भारतीय चर्च आज ईसा के सिंद्वातों को भूलाकर अपने साम्राज्यवाद को बढ़ाने में लगा हुआ है। द्वितीय वेटिकन के फैसलों और कैनन लॉ को भारतीय चर्चो में लागू ही नही किया जा रहा।

भारत में वंचित वर्गो से धर्मांतरित लोगों का बहुमत ईसाइयत में है देश की कुल ईसाई जनसंख्या का 80 प्रतिशत दलित और आदिवासी समाज से है। इतनी बड़ी भागीदारी होने के बावजूद चर्च के निर्णयक स्थानों में उनकी कोई भागीदारी नहीं है। मौजूदा समय में कैथोलिक चर्च के 168 बिशप है (ईसाई समाज में सर्वाधिक ताकतवर पद) इनमें केवल 4 दलित बिशप है। तेरह हजार डैयसेशन प्रीस्ट, चौदह हजार रिलिजयस प्रीस्ट, पँाच हजार बर्दज और एक लाख के करीब नन है जिनमें से केवल हजार-बारह सौ ही दलित-आदिवासी पादरी है और वह भी चर्च ढांचे में हाशिए पर पड़े हुए है।

ईसाई नेता फ्रांसिस ने कहा कि विशाल संसाधनों से लैस भारतीय चर्च धर्मांतरित ईसाइयों की समास्याओं पर मौन साधे हुए अपने साम्राज्यवाद को बढ़ाने में लगा हुआ हैं। भारत में चर्च को कुछ संवैधानिक अधिकार प्राप्त है। भाषा और संस्कृति को संरक्षण देने वाली संवैधानिक धराओं का दुरुपयोग करते हुए चर्च ने भारत में कितनी संपति इकट्ठी की है इसकी निगरानी करने का कोई नियम नही है। जबकि कई पश्चिमी देशों में इस तरह की व्यवस्था बनाई गई है। ईसाई संगठन ने मांग की, कि चर्चो और उनके संस्थानों को नियंत्रित करने के लिए कानून लाया जाना चाहिए।

मूवमेंट के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष आर.एल फ्रांसिस ने कहा कि देश में सरकार के बाद चर्च के पास दूसरे नम्बर पर भूमि है और वह भी शहरी पॉश इलाकों में। देश की जनसंख्या का मात्र तीन प्रतिशत होने के बावजूद भारत की 22 प्रतिशत शिक्षण संस्थाएं और 30 प्रतिशत स्वस्थ्य सेवाओं पर चर्च का कब्जा है। इतना सब होने पर भी आम गरीब ईसाई मर रहा है और हमारे चर्च नेता धर्म प्रचार की स्वतंत्रता और उनकी संस्थाओं को विषेश दर्जा दिलाने जैसे कार्यो में ही व्यस्त है।

पुअर क्रिश्चियन लिबरेशन मूवमेंट अध्यक्ष आर.एल.फ्रांसिस ने कहा कि जिन दलितों ने ईसाइयत को अपनाया वह हिन्दू दलितों के मुकाबले जीवन की दौड़ में पीछे छूट गए है। जहां हिन्दू समाज ने विकास की दौड़ में पीछे छूट गए अपने इन अभाव-ग्रस्त भाई-बहनों को आगे बढ़ने के अवसर उपलब्ध करवाये है, वही भारतीय चर्च ने अपना साम्राज्य बढ़ाने को प्रथमिकता दी है।

ईसाई संगठन पुअर क्रिश्चियन लिबरेशन मूवमेंट ने पोप फ्रांसिस एवं वेटिकन की सुप्रीम काउंसिल और वर्ल्ड काउंसिल ऑफ चर्चेज (डब्लूय.सी.सी.) से मांग की कि वह एवेंजलिज्म (धर्मप्रचार) पर खर्च होने वाले धन का उपयोग दलित ईसाइयों के विकास के लिये करें कैथोलिक चर्च में बिशप का चुनाव करने का अधिकार आम ईसाइयों को दे - वर्तमान समय में वेटिकन का पोप ही बिशप नियुक्ति करता है। स्थानीय ईसाइयों के बीच चर्च सत्ता का हस्तातंरण करने और चर्चों और चर्च संस्थानों से प्राप्त होने वाले धन को दलित ईसाइयों पर खर्च करने की मांग की है।


Friday, 29 March 2013

RBI freedom under threat


RBI freedom under threat 
Panel wants governor's powers curbed

OUR BUREAU
March 28: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stands in real danger of losing its independence and its governor could be stripped of his exclusive prerogative to frame monetary policy if the government accepts the report of Justice B.N. Srikrishna committee, which has recommended a raft of regulatory reforms in the financial sector.
The Srikrishna report, which was placed in the public domain today, seeks to severely hem in the country's oldest regulator — the RBI — which was set up under a statute in 1935.
Until now, the RBI has operated within a sphere of relative independence but in consultation with the finance ministry, often adopting monetary measures that were completely at odds with the views of the finance ministry and other mandarins on Raisina Hill. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, for instance, didn't cave into the growing clamour for interest rate cuts last year and adopted a hawkish line that set him apart from other central bankers around the world.
Under the new framework, the report says the finance ministry should kick-start the process by "defining the objective of monetary policy". It will do this by putting out a statement defining a quantitative monitorable "predominant" target. Subsidiary targets will then be tacked on "which will be pursued when there are no difficulties in meeting the predominant target". The ministry usually holds discussions with the RBI governor before every quarterly review of monetary policy, but it has never explicitly set numerical targets for the central bank.
The role of the RBI governor will be severely circumscribed with the report suggesting that an executive monetary policy committee (MPC) will be formed to vote on policy decisions — borrowing an idea from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
"The MPC would meet regularly, and vote on the exercise of these powers, based on forecasts about the economy and the extent to which the objectives are likely to be met," the report said.
RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao appears to have had some inkling of the momentous change that had been suggested. On Monday, he had told reporters while on a visit to Port Louis in Mauritius that the central bank needed greater independence before it could adopt a monetary policy committee structure.
"India needs to move towards a monetary policy committee structure," Subbarao had said. "For that to happen…. one of the necessary conditions must be more independence of the central bank."
"The MPC would operate under conditions of high transparency, thus ensuring that the economy at large has a good sense about how the central bank responds to future events," the report said.
In a speech at Basel in 2011, Subbarao had explained how monetary policy decisions have been taken in India. "Monetary policy decisions are made by the governor, There is no formal committee structure like the FOMC of the Fed or the MPC of the Bank of England. The governor holds structured consultations with the four deputy governors and they constitute an informal MPC... By its very nature there is no voting in this committee and the final call is that of the governor."
This is likely to change and could even lead to a situation where the governor is outvoted. Last month, Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King wanted to pump more money into the British economy by buying more bonds, but was outvoted by his colleagues on the MPC.
That's not all: the RBI will no longer have complete oversight over capital flows. The report says the finance ministry will "make rules that control inbound capital flows (and their repatriation)". The RBI will merely confine itself to framing "regulations" about out-bound capital flows (and their repatriation). It also suggested the need for a framework for imposition of controls in emergency situations.
The recommendations have already drawn flak with as many as four of the eight members of the committee filing dissent notes.
Former central banker K.K. Udeshi had serious reservations about the way capital controls regulations were going to be framed.
"Forex reserves accretion is invariably on account of a capital account surplus … there is widespread concern among several central banks in emerging market economies about the added pressures on monetary management due to the prevailing extraordinarily strong and volatile cross-border capital flows.
"If the RBI has no say in initiating policy relating to these volatile flows, it would be constrained to take monetary policy measures… to deal with the consequences of such flows; such measures may not be what the government or industry and the business community seek, leading to overall dissatisfaction," Udeshi added.
The Commission recommended combining regulation of all investment vehicles and individuals into a single, unified framework: the qualified financial investor (QFI). "Creating a single investor class for foreign investments would considerably reduce uncertainty, compliance costs and the time taken to make investments without in any way altering the domestic investment framework," the report said.
The RBI will also lose all say in the management of public debt. The commission trotted out the familiar "conflict of interest" argument to explain why it should be taken out of the RBI's ambit. "The central bank that sells government bonds faces conflicting objectives. When the RBI is given the objective of obtaining low cost financing for the Government, this may give RBI a bias in favour of low interest rates which could interfere with the goal of price stability." This is a line that Subbarao has always challenged, terming it a huge fallacy especially in the Indian context where massive government borrowings impinges on the framing of monetary policy.
The government is currently framing legislation to create an independent debt management office.
The RBI's role will be restricted to three functions: monetary policy, regulation and supervision of banking in enforcing the proposed consumer protection law and the proposed micro-prudential law, and regulation and supervision of payment systems in enforcing these two laws.
Cooperatives
One of the recommendations that is bound to raise the hackles of state governments is over the regulation of cooperatives. The commission said cooperatives carrying on financial services should be subject to the same prudential regulations as other entities carrying on the same activities.
It said state governments should accept the authority of parliament to legislate on matters relating to the regulation and supervision of co-operative societies carrying on financial services. The regulator may impose restrictions on cooperatives that will restrict them from offering special financial services in states whose governments do not accept the authority of parliament to legislate on the regulation of these entities.


SOUND AND FURY - The belief that the UPA’s position is not critical is unfounded


SOUND AND FURY 
- The belief that the UPA's position is not critical is unfounded


SOUND AND FURY 
- The belief that the UPA's position is not critical is unfounded

Swapan Dasgupta
A fine balance
Despite the peremptory withdrawal of support to the United Progressive Alliance government by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the incessantly awkward noises being made by the leadership of the Samajwadi Party, the consensus in Lutyens' Delhi is that there will be no abrupt collapse of Manmohan Singh's government. Although all discerning observers, and particularly the financial markets, anticipate a period of turbulence, nail- biting uncertainty and policy drift, the overall belief is that Indians are unlikely to get a chance of voting in a new government until 2014 unless, of course, there is an accident which upsets all calculations.
Common sense should suggest that the Congress is viewing its government's survival on a life-support system with considerable trepidation. Yet, despite the additional nervousness created by the strange utterances and unpredictable conduct of the heir-apparent, Rahul Gandhi, there is a quiet belief that the position of the UPA is not as critical as it may appear. This apparently bewildering optimism is based on a number of factors which may or may not be based on reality.
First, there is dogged faith in the ability of L.K. Advani and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to create a stalemate in the Bharatiya Janata Party over the projection of the Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi, as the leader of the pack. The Congress believes, or rather, hopes, that uncertainty on this count could lead to a dispirited BJP, whose foot-soldiers are solidly behind Modi.
Secondly, there are tantalizing whispers that the assault of the Central Bureau of Investigation on the family of the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy in Andhra Pradesh is beginning to yield dividends that will, in time, lead to an understanding of sorts between the Congress and the Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress. Likewise, the pressure of investigative agencies would also ensure that the DMK's departure from the UPA would deter it from adopting a belligerent anti-Congress stand. There are sections of the Congress that even believe that an undercover electoral understanding with the DMK is still possible, and that the finance minister, P. Chidambaram, who is extremely vulnerable in his present Lok Sabha constituency, can be accommodated from Pondicherry.
Thirdly, in the past weeks, there is frenzied speculation that the Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar, will be tempted by financial lollipops to finally walk out of the National Democratic Alliance, citing the pre-eminence of Modi as the reason for taking a stand on 'secularism'. The groundwork for this is being readied and those who claim to speak for Nitish seem to be openly flaunting their anti-BJPism more than their desire to end a decade of Congress rule.
The Bihar chief minister's moves seem to be based on two assumptions. First, he is working on the assumption that a political break with the BJP on the question of the 'communal' Modi will endear him to the Muslim electorate of Bihar and have the same effect as Lalu Prasad's arrest of Advani during the rath yatra of 1990 had. In short, if Nitish is able to detach the Muslim vote from Lalu, retain his Kurmi-led backward caste vote and secure a sprinkling of the Congress's upper caste following, he will be home and dry. The Janata Dal (United), it is being said, need not enter into a pre-poll pact with the Congress. But if it can bring in some 25 members of parliament into the next Lok Sabha, it can play a role similar to that of the DMK in the UPA. Certainly, the composition of those who have climbed on to the Nitish-bandwagon suggests that he wants to play a meaningful role in the next government at the Centre. As a first recourse, he will try to torment the BJP into sending Modi back to Gujarat. In case that is not possible, he may be willing to explore a post-poll pact with the Congress.
Of course, this scenario is based on the premise that Nitish will squeeze both Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress to the margins in Bihar, and engineer a contest that involves only the JD(U) and the BJP. My own sense is that Nitish has underestimated the potential appeal of Modi among Bihar's other backward classes voters — something that, judging by anecdotal evidence, Lalu has not. If there is indeed a visible momentum in favour of Modi in Bihar (as a section of the state BJP believes), many of these calculations could change mid-course. In that case, Nitish may put his energies into finding a way of remaining in the NDA without losing face.
Nitish's second assumption centres on triggering a blend of sub- nationalism and regional pride. At the heart of this approach is the demand for 'special status' and a compensatory package for backwardness which, ironically, is at odds with the claim that Bihar (and not Gujarat) is setting the pace of economic development. In his budget speech, Chidambaram spoke about the need to redefine 'backwardness' in a way that exceptional benefits are no longer confined to the 'special category' states, that is the Northeast, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir. It is believed that with the concurrence of the Planning Commission, Bihar could gain an additional Rs 12,000 crore from the backward regions grant fund under the 12th five year plan. Although this is well short of the Rs 40,000 crore of special assistance that Nitish has demanded from the Centre, the promise of additional resources may be a lifeline to Nitish, who has encountered political upheaval (such as the temporary teachers' agitation) on account of budgetary constraints.
However, in banking excessively on the political fragility of the UPA to wrest financial concessions from Delhi, Nitish may have overplayed his hand. Given the fiscal predicament of the Centre, its scope for showering political largesse has shrunk considerably. Nor does it have the political muscle to pressure the National Development Council to modify the 'special category' list. In trying to firm up his electoral plank, Nitish, it would appear, has allowed the larger fight against a skewed federalism to be overshadowed by his faith in his ability to exploit the Centre's discretionary powers. He has unwittingly given a new lease of life to the philosophy of a redistributive Centre, an idea that contributed to the economic devastation of eastern India after Independence and which, mercifully, was diluted following the liberalization of the economy in 1991. Where he should have been pressing for more statutory rights and control over regional decision-making, Nitish has been content to agitate for grace marks from an indulgent examiner. His approach is risky: he may have made Bihar's development hostage to the political mood of the Central government.
Finally, the Congress has been enormously encouraged in recent weeks by the overtures of friendship coming from Mamata Banerjee. Following the three by-polls, Mamata may have arrived at the conclusion that the decline of the Left has not been accompanied by a sharper erosion of Congress support. In short, there is every possibility that a three-way split in votes could go to the advantage of the Left. This could be more so in view of the possibility that a Modi-led BJP could secure as much as 12 per cent of the popular vote in Bengal, even if the moribund local BJP leaders sit idle. No wonder there are already unmistakable indications that Mamata may be reviewing her no-holds-barred assault on the UPA.
Together, all these developments add up to the likelihood of a bitterly contested election campaign where the expectation of change could well be spiritedly countered by the fears of change. As India persists with its gloomy economics, its politics is simultaneously acquiring an autonomous dimension.